Data source: MLS export · Bay Harbor Islands · Analysis period: 90 days ending March 2026 · Condos and single-family

Current Pricing & Inventory

The Bay Harbor Islands condo market has 174 active listings as of March 2026. That number requires context before it means anything. Approximately 40–45% of those listings are pre-construction or under construction, with delivery timelines running from late 2025 through 2027. The actual resale-ready condo inventory — units you can buy and occupy within 30–60 days — is closer to 90 units. That is still meaningful supply for an island of this size.

Over the 90-day period covered by this data, 19 confirmed condo sales closed. That implies roughly six closings per month and a resale supply of approximately 27 months. A balanced market in this corridor historically runs 5–6 months of supply. The market is above that threshold.

Median closed condo price for the period: $675,000. Average closed price: $1.2M. The gap between those two numbers matters. A small number of high-value transactions — Onda Residences, KAI, Sereno — pull the average significantly above the median. The median is the more reliable number for understanding what most of the market is actually doing.

The speed at which those 19 closings occurred: median 109 days on market. Average: 194 days. Only 4 of the 19 closed in under 30 days. Eight took more than 180 days. This is not a fast-moving market — it is a selective one, and the difference between a well-priced unit and an over-priced one is measured in months, not weeks.

The single-family inventory is thin: nine active listings plus one active-contingent, ranging from $4.49M to $34.5M (the upper end is a single waterfront estate on W Broadview Drive that is in its own category). Excluding that outlier, the effective SF price range runs $4.49M–$9.5M with a median active asking price around $6.5M. Active listings have been sitting an average of 84 days. Only one single-family home closed in the 90-day period.

What the Data Actually Shows

The most revealing number in this dataset is not the median price. It is the ratio of failed transactions to closed ones. In the period covered by this data, 32 condo listings exited the market without selling — against 19 confirmed closings. More properties left the market without a sale than with one. The fail-to-close rate is approximately 63%.

The new construction cancellation data complicates that headline. La Baia North at 9481 E Bay Harbor Drive had three separate units cancel in this period — at $3.995M (127 days), $3.89M (145 days), and $1.575M (261 days). Solina at 1055 93rd Street had two units cancel: one at $3.875M after 478 days, one at $1.699M after 701 days. These are not resale sellers testing an aggressive price. These are new or near-new construction units that ran a full marketing cycle and exited without a buyer. New construction cancellations at this rate and at these DOM figures say something specific: the price points set at launch are above where buyers in this market will transact. That is a meaningful signal for anyone evaluating underway projects going into 2027.

The list-to-sale ratio data tells the same story differently. The median condo closed at approximately 94.7% of its list price — buyers are consistently negotiating around 5% off asking. On a $2M purchase that is $100,000. On a $4M purchase it is $200,000. Several transactions came in significantly below: KAI sold at 87% of list, Carroll Walk at 84%. One St Regis unit sold at 76% of list — an outlier that likely reflects a specific seller situation rather than a building trend, but notable.

The most important pricing signal in the data is the spread between new construction and older resale by price per square foot — and now by days on market too. New construction condos (Onda, La Baia) that closed in this period traded at $1,200–$1,600 per square foot with a median DOM of 56 days. Mid-generation buildings from 2000–2018 are closing at $630–$1,035 per square foot — but at a median DOM of 433 days and the deepest list-to-sale discounts in the dataset. Older buildings from the 1950s–1980s are closing at $330–$500 per square foot at a median DOM of 126 days. Buyers and sellers in each segment are operating in separate markets with different buyer pools, different financing dynamics, and different holding costs before a deal closes.

The mid-generation segment deserves specific attention. KAI (2016, waterfront) took 433 days and sold at 87% of list. Carroll Walk (2003, waterfront penthouse) took 322 days and sold at 84% of list. Sereno (2016, waterfront penthouse) was on the market 965 days before closing at 91% of list. These are not distressed properties — they are well-located units in established buildings that were priced above what buyers would pay and sat until sellers adjusted. The pattern holds across all three: significant time cost, meaningful discount, eventual sale. Buyers in this segment have leverage. Sellers need to understand that before listing.

In the single-family segment, three of the four canceled listings reappeared in the active market at lower prices: 1210 95th Street dropped from $6.75M to $6.5M, 10121 E Broadview from $6.7M to $6.499M, and 1251 Kane Concourse from $4.725M to $4.49M. These are 3–5% reductions — not dramatic, but consistent. The market is telling sellers exactly what happens when initial pricing is above what buyers will pay.

Single-Family: What the Days Actually Show

The nine active SF listings have been sitting an average of 84 days, median 81. Four of the nine have been on the market more than 100 days. Those are not slow-moving luxury properties waiting for the right buyer — that is a market telling sellers the price is wrong.

The sharpest signal in the active SF data is 10190 E Bay Harbor Drive — Bay Harbor Villas, a 2026 new construction home listed at $6.8M. It has been active 204 days. New construction sitting 204 days in a 10-listing market is not a coincidence of timing. It is a pricing problem. The home next door could be equally well-built and sell in six weeks if the number is right. This one has not moved because the buyer pool at $6.8M in Bay Harbor Islands is small and has alternatives.

The cancel-relist pattern compounds the DOM story. The fresh DOM a buyer sees when they pull a listing today — 45 days, 14 days, 22 days — is not the actual time these homes have been on the market. 1251 Kane Concourse has accumulated 364 cumulative days across two listing periods: first at $4.725M, now at $4.49M. 1210 95th Street: 119 cumulative days across two attempts. 10121 E Broadview: 94 cumulative days. The fresh DOM count is a reset. The market does not forget.

There is one confirmed SF sale in the 90-day period: 1261 99th Street, 2018 construction, closed at $8M on an $8.7M ask — 68 days on market, $1,333 per square foot. In a 90-day window where five other SF exit attempts failed, that single transaction is the only live price anchor the market has for post-2015 construction. Everything else is asking price opinion.

Who's Buying Right Now

The buyer profile in Bay Harbor Islands is bifurcated in a way that matches the product bifurcation. At the new construction end — Onda, La Baia, THE WELL, 9900 West — buyers are typically high-net-worth domestic and international purchasers evaluating these buildings against comparable new product in Surfside and Bal Harbour. Price per square foot and building concept — wellness positioning, waterfront access, boutique scale — are the primary factors they are comparing. A meaningful portion of these buyers are using this market as an alternative to Bal Harbour new construction, where entry pricing has moved significantly higher.

In the resale segment — older 1960s through early 2000s buildings priced $400K–$1.5M — the buyer profile is different: end-users, local investors, and buyers who understand building-level quality differences and are comparison-shopping against Surfside resale at similar price points. Some are downsizers who have lived in larger Miami homes. Others are buyers who've been priced out of Miami Beach and Brickell and are finding Bay Harbor Islands offers more space per dollar without the density of those markets.

Tamara's Take

The data confirms what I've observed on the ground: Bay Harbor Islands is not one market. It is three overlapping markets — new construction pre-sale, recently delivered resale, and older building resale — each with different absorption rates, different buyer profiles, and different pricing logic. Treating them as one market is how buyers overpay and sellers underprice.

The new construction portfolio deserves scrutiny beyond individual building announcements. The canceled listing data shows that La Baia North and Solina — both relatively new or near-delivery buildings — had multiple units exit the market after 127 to 701 days without finding buyers. That is not a story being told in the developer marketing materials, but it is in the data. For buyers considering pre-construction commitments among 2026–2027 underway projects — AIRE Residences, Porto Bay, ALMA Bay Harbor, MILA Bay Harbor — the question is not just whether the building will deliver but whether the price point set at launch will hold when it does. The buildings that are canceling now were priced at launch with similar assumptions.

The single-family market is the clearest illustration of what happens when supply is thin and demand is selective. Only one sale in 90 days, multiple cancellation-relist cycles, consistent price reductions after testing. In a market this illiquid, the difference between a priced-to-sell listing and a testing-the-ceiling listing is not measured in weeks. It is measured in months.

What This Means for Buyers

The negotiation room is real and consistent. Median list-to-sale ratio of 94.7% across 21 transactions means you should approach any offer expecting to negotiate, not wondering whether negotiation is acceptable. And DOM is your clearest leverage signal. Four properties sold in under 30 days — those sellers had alternatives and the data shows it. Eight properties took more than 180 days. The seller who has been waiting six months is in a different conversation than the one who listed last week. On any property that has been active 90 or more days, start by pulling the actual closed comps in that building. What sold, at what price, and how long it took is your reference point — not the current asking price.

In the mid-gen segment specifically, the KAI/Carroll Walk/Sereno pattern gives buyers a template. These are desirable addresses with real waterfront access. They also sat 300–900 days and closed at 84–91% of list. If you are looking at comparable mid-gen inventory today, that data set belongs in your offer strategy.

If you are comparing new construction to resale: the $700–$1,100 per square foot gap between new and older product is real, but so is the difference in what you are buying. A new construction unit at $1,300/sqft comes with modern building systems, no deferred maintenance, and a developer warranty. An older unit at $450/sqft comes with a known building history — financials you can read, ownership mix you can verify, HOA dynamics that already exist. Both can be right depending on what you need. They should not be compared on price alone.

For pre-construction specifically: the 65–70 pre-construction listings currently active represent future supply that will price into the market over the next two years. Know what you are buying before you commit a deposit to a 2027 delivery.

What This Means for Sellers

The 63% fail-to-close rate is the reference point for every pricing conversation in this market. Thirty-six condo listings attempted to sell and did not. But the DOM data on canceled listings adds precision to that figure: the 28 listings that canceled ran an average of 238 days before exiting. Median: 218 days. These sellers did not give up quickly. They spent seven months on average trying to find a buyer at their price. When they finally canceled, it was after a sustained, visible period on market. The cost of that strategy is not just time — it is buyer perception, price reduction pressure, and the signal that something is wrong with a listing that sat for most of a year.

Sellers of resale condos above $1.5M are competing with developer inventory and sitting mid-gen buildings simultaneously. There are active new construction listings in the $2M–$5M range from buildings with full amenity programs and waterfront positioning. And the KAI, Carroll Walk, and Sereno data show what the alternative looks like: 322–965 days on market, discounts of 9–16%. A 2003 or 2010 resale unit competing in that price band needs a specific comparative advantage — renovation level, floor, views, building financials — that genuinely justifies the price against what a buyer could get new or at a discount from a motivated mid-gen seller.

In the single-family segment, the cancel-relist pattern is the clearest market signal available. Three of four canceled SF listings came back at lower prices. The one that did not relist remains off the market. The one confirmed sale — 1261 99th Street, 2018 construction, $8M on an $8.7M list — sold at 92% of asking within a reasonable timeframe. That is what a well-priced, well-conditioned home does in this market. The rest of the data shows what happens when a home is not priced there. For more context on how Bay Harbor Islands compares with neighboring markets, see condo market growth and the Surfside vs Bay Harbor Islands comparison.