Data source: MLS export · Bay Harbor Islands · Analysis period: April 2026 · Condos and single-family
Current Pricing & Inventory
April closed with 6 condo sales in Bay Harbor Islands, a median sale price of $952,500, and a median of 132 days on market. Those numbers tell a specific story: properties are moving, but not quickly, and not at the prices many sellers are listing at.
On the supply side, 17 new condo listings entered the market this month with a median list price of $2,450,000 — more than two and a half times the median closed price. At the same time, 5 listings were cancelled or withdrawn after a median of 142 days. The gap between what's being asked and what's actually trading is one of the defining features of this market right now.
With 17 active condo listings and 6 closings this month, months of supply sits at 2.8. On paper, that leans toward a seller's market. In practice, the picture is more complicated. The 17 new listings span a wide range — from $359,000 to $6,825,000 — across buildings including Onda Residences, The Well Bay Harbor, La Baia, Sereno, Guildford Condo, Bay Harbor Towers, Southern Star, The Belmont Condo, 9900 West, St Regis Apts Condo, and Bijou. A buyer looking in the $900,000–$1,200,000 range where deals are actually closing is operating in a different market than someone evaluating new-construction listings priced above $2 million.
The six closed sales ranged from $600,000 to $2,220,000 across Bay Harbor Club Condo, Bijou Bay Harbor, Le Jardin House, Montego Club, and The Villas at Bay Harbor, with a median price per square foot of $515. Median days on market: 132. The single-family side produced one closed sale at $8,000,000 and 17 cancelled or withdrawn listings.
What the Data Actually Shows
The most revealing number this month is not the median price. It is the failed-to-closed ratio: 5 cancelled or withdrawn listings against 6 closings — 0.83. For roughly every 6 sales that closed, 5 listings were pulled without finding a buyer. That is a high cancellation rate, and it points directly to mispricing or unrealistic seller expectations.
The 6 condos that closed traded at a median of $952,500 and $515 per square foot across Bay Harbor Club Condo, Bijou Bay Harbor, Le Jardin House, Montego Club, and The Villas at Bay Harbor. Median days on market for those closings was 132 — nearly four and a half months. This is not a fast-moving market; it is a selective one.
The number that matters most right now is the spread between what's being listed and what's actually closing. The median list price for new condo listings in April is $2,450,000. The median closed sale price is $952,500. That's a gap of roughly $1.5 million. Some of that gap reflects product differences — several new listings are in buildings like Onda Residences and The Well Bay Harbor, which command higher per-unit pricing. But the gap also reflects a pattern that recurs consistently in Bay Harbor Islands: sellers anchoring to aspirational pricing rather than recent comps.
Buyers who understand this dynamic have real leverage — particularly on listings that have been sitting past the 130-day mark. Sellers who ignore it end up in the cancelled column after 142 days.
Single-Family: What the Days Actually Show
The nine active SF listings have been sitting an average of 84 days, median 81. Four of the nine have been on the market more than 100 days. Those are not slow-moving luxury properties waiting for the right buyer — that is a market telling sellers the price is wrong.
The sharpest signal in the active SF data is 10190 E Bay Harbor Drive — Bay Harbor Villas, a 2026 new construction home listed at $6.8M. It has been active 204 days. New construction sitting 204 days in a 10-listing market is not a coincidence of timing. It is a pricing problem. The home next door could be equally well-built and sell in six weeks if the number is right. This one has not moved because the buyer pool at $6.8M in Bay Harbor Islands is small and has alternatives.
The cancel-relist pattern compounds the DOM story. The fresh DOM a buyer sees when they pull a listing today — 45 days, 14 days, 22 days — is not the actual time these homes have been on the market. 1251 Kane Concourse has accumulated 364 cumulative days across two listing periods: first at $4.725M, now at $4.49M. 1210 95th Street: 119 cumulative days across two attempts. 10121 E Broadview: 94 cumulative days. The fresh DOM count is a reset. The market does not forget.
There is one confirmed SF sale in the 90-day period: 1261 99th Street, 2018 construction, closed at $8M on an $8.7M ask — 68 days on market, $1,333 per square foot. In a 90-day window where five other SF exit attempts failed, that single transaction is the only live price anchor the market has for post-2015 construction. Everything else is asking price opinion.
Who's Buying Right Now
The buyer profile in Bay Harbor Islands is bifurcated in a way that matches the product bifurcation. At the new construction end — Onda, La Baia, THE WELL, 9900 West — buyers are typically high-net-worth domestic and international purchasers evaluating these buildings against comparable new product in Surfside and Bal Harbour. Price per square foot and building concept — wellness positioning, waterfront access, boutique scale — are the primary factors they are comparing. A meaningful portion of these buyers are using this market as an alternative to Bal Harbour new construction, where entry pricing has moved significantly higher.
In the resale segment — older 1960s through early 2000s buildings priced $400K–$1.5M — the buyer profile is different: end-users, local investors, and buyers who understand building-level quality differences and are comparison-shopping against Surfside resale at similar price points. Some are downsizers who have lived in larger Miami homes. Others are buyers who've been priced out of Miami Beach and Brickell and are finding Bay Harbor Islands offers more space per dollar without the density of those markets.
Tamara's Take
The data confirms what I've observed on the ground: Bay Harbor Islands is not one market. It is three overlapping markets — new construction pre-sale, recently delivered resale, and older building resale — each with different absorption rates, different buyer profiles, and different pricing logic. Treating them as one market is how buyers overpay and sellers underprice.
The new construction portfolio deserves scrutiny beyond individual building announcements. The canceled listing data shows that La Baia North and Solina — both relatively new or near-delivery buildings — had multiple units exit the market after 127 to 701 days without finding buyers. That is not a story being told in the developer marketing materials, but it is in the data. For buyers considering pre-construction commitments among 2026–2027 underway projects — AIRE Residences, Porto Bay, ALMA Bay Harbor, MILA Bay Harbor — the question is not just whether the building will deliver but whether the price point set at launch will hold when it does. The buildings that are canceling now were priced at launch with similar assumptions.
The single-family market is the clearest illustration of what happens when supply is thin and demand is selective. Only one sale in 90 days, multiple cancellation-relist cycles, consistent price reductions after testing. In a market this illiquid, the difference between a priced-to-sell listing and a testing-the-ceiling listing is not measured in weeks. It is measured in months.
What This Means for Buyers
The data this month gives you a clear negotiating position. Closed sales are happening at a median of $952,500 and $515 per square foot, while new inventory is entering at a median ask of $2,450,000. That disconnect means there are sellers in Bay Harbor Islands right now who will need to adjust — and listings that have been sitting past the 130-day mark are the ones most likely to move on price.
The 45% failure rate on listing exits tells you that nearly half of all exits are cancellations, which means a significant number of sellers are discovering their price doesn't work. If you're looking at resale product in buildings like Bay Harbor Club Condo, Montego Club, or The Villas at Bay Harbor — where closings actually happened this month — the recent sales give you a concrete basis for your offer. Don't anchor to list prices. Anchor to what closed, how long it took, and what got cancelled.
What This Means for Sellers
If you're pricing a condo in Bay Harbor Islands right now, the most important number isn't what your neighbor listed at — it's 132. That's the median days on market for the units that actually sold this month. The ones that didn't sell sat even longer: 142 days median before being cancelled or withdrawn. Pricing above where the market is transacting doesn't just cost you time. It costs you leverage.
The 6 units that closed in April traded between $600,000 and $2,220,000, with a median of $952,500. If your unit falls within that range, pricing tightly to recent comps is the clearest path to a closed deal. If you're in a newer building with higher basis — Onda Residences, The Well Bay Harbor, La Baia — recognize that you're competing with 17 active listings, many of them in similar product. At 2.8 months of supply, the inventory math technically favors sellers, but only if you're priced where buyers are actually transacting. For context on how Bay Harbor Islands compares with neighboring markets, see the Surfside vs Bay Harbor Islands comparison.